Sometimes it feels good to be surprised, but Tuesday’s anticipated announcement by the Bank of Canada that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 percent was a relief. The global economic recovery is entering a new phase, and the Bank of Canada is now expecting weaker-than-projected recovery across the board, especially in the United States. Canada is not an exception in this shift in projections since July’s Monetary Policy Report, as the Bank continues to expect the economic recovery here will also be more gradual.
Instead of focusing on household and government expenditures, the composition of demand in Canada is expected to shift towards business investment and net exports.Corresponding to the overnight right maintaining at 1 percent, the Bank Rate is set at 1 ¼ percent and the deposit rate is set at ¾ percent. Growth rates in Canada are expected to be 3.0 percent in 2010, 2.3 percent in 2011, and 2.6 percent in 2012. Although a portion of this more subdued profile is a result of the more gradual global recovery, it also takes into account a more subdued expectation for Canadian household spending. The projections around household spending come from the decline in housing activity, and as a result, the increased focus on household debt considerations.
Inflation in Canada has remained slightly below the July projections of the Bank of Canada, but the expectation is that the economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2012 instead of the previously forecasted beginning of that year.
It was a combination of all of these factors that the decision was reached to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 percent. This new announcement continues to keep considerable monetary stimulus in place to continue to achieve the 2 percent inflation target during a time when Canada is coping with a significant excess of supply. Given the transition in the global recovery, the weaker U.S. outlook, constraints beginning to moderate growth in emerging-market economies, and Canadian considerations that are expected to slow spending and housing activity in Canada, the Bank would need to carefully consider any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus.
Although this announcement is driven by a weaker global economy, the management of the painful current global reality within the confines of the Canadian economy should create a sigh of relief for the real estate and mortgage industry, as there is not any new pressure being pushed onto the industry after a painful 2nd quarter in 2010.
From Canadian Property Wire
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